Publications
Willbanks, Clinton, and Michael E. Shepherd. 2026. “Texas in the Rear-View Mirror? How the Democratic Party Ignores Rural America and Underperforms in Elections.” Political Behavior 48: 657–694.
Dissertation Research
Protecting My Party – A Behavioral Analysis of the Primary Voter
How do primary voters decide whom to support, and what are the implications for nomination politics in the United States? My dissertation argues that appeals to partisan identity and anti-establishment or anti-system rhetoric are two key dimensions structuring primary election communications, and examines how these dimensions interact with the psychological frameworks and social attachments that structure voters’ decision-making. I disentangle the role of partisan identity and concern for partisan reputational spillover in shaping receptivity to anti-establishment rhetoric. I argue that the strength of voters’ partisan ties, when primed by candidate communications, constrains the efficacy of anti-system messages. I defend this through a mixed-methods approach combining survey experiments, an original machine-learning classification of campaign advertising, and large-n analyses of primary election results.
Manuscripts Submitted
Carlos, Roberto, Vanessa Cruz Nichols, Miranda Sullivan, Allison Verrilli, Clinton Willbanks, Seung Wook Yoo, and Christopher Cassella. Drawing a Line in the Sand: Embarrassment and Latinx Support for Punitive Immigration Policies. Revise and Resubmit.
Theriault, Sean M., and Clinton Willbanks. The Claims, Causes, and Consequences of the 2026 Redistricting War. Under Review.
Salzman, Jenna, Clinton Willbanks, and Daron R. Shaw. “Migration, Mobility, and the Realignment of the American Parties.” In Handbook of American Political Geography, edited by Kal Munis and Nicholas Jacobs. Under review.
Selected Working Papers
Willbanks, Clinton. The Party Penalizes: An Examination of the General Election Effects of Party-Preferred Candidates Losing Primary Elections.
Willbanks, Clinton. Join the Party: How Local Parties Increase Primary Election Participation.
Garza, Stephanie and Clinton Willbanks. Fortifying the Message: The Electoral Impact of Immigration Framing in Republican Political Campaigns.
Willbanks, Clinton, Daron R. Shaw, Sunshine Hillygus, Shanto Iyengar, Nicholas Valentino, and Matthew DeBell. Does Highlighting Republican Involvement in a Poll Increase Response Rates?
Shaw, Daron R., and Clinton Willbanks. Gone to Texas: A Study of Mobility and Political Change in an Era of Polarization.